The Water Blueprint
"Future wars will be fought over water" - One of most powerful energy bankers in the world
Water is the center of life. Without it we would die and starve.
In 2014, the city of Flint, a majority-Black city facing financial distress, switched its water source from treated Lake Huron water supplied by Detroit to the Flint River as a cost-saving measure. The critical failure was the city's (and later the state's) decision not to apply corrosion control treatments to the highly corrosive Flint River water. This caused lead from aging pipes to leach into the drinking water. Residents immediately complained about the water's appearance, smell, and health effects (rashes, hair loss). For months, local and state officials dismissed these concerns and falsely assured residents the water was safe.
Flint teaches us a powerful lesson on the importance of focusing the quality of leadership for the water industry. This is an issue to be clear that goes across political lines and race.
Big Business Negative Influence
Across industrial, chemical, oil, food, and sanitation sectors, big businesses have significantly contributed to water pollution, often with disproportionate impacts on Black communities. The book Troubled Water goes into great detail on these issues. Some examples are below:
Industrial Discharges: Factories, chemical plants, and other industrial facilities discharge pollutants into waterways. These facilities are often located near or within marginalized communities due to weaker zoning laws, cheaper land, and less political resistance.
Chemical Contamination: The production and disposal of chemicals, including "forever chemicals" like PFAS, have contaminated water sources. Black communities are more likely to have unregulated chemicals in their drinking water and live near pollution sources like industrial sites.
Oil and Gas: The oil and gas industry contributes to water pollution through spills, wastewater injection, and hydraulic fracturing (fracking) activities, which can introduce harmful chemicals into groundwater.
Agricultural Runoff: Large-scale agriculture contributes to water pollution through runoff containing pesticides, fertilizers, and animal waste. This can impact rural communities, including many Black farming communities.
Food Processing Waste: Food processing plants can discharge organic waste, leading to oxygen depletion in waterways and harming aquatic life. Improper disposal of used cooking oil can also lead to blockages in sewer systems and contaminate waterways.
Lack of Accountability: Historically, these industries have faced insufficient regulation and enforcement, often due to lobbying efforts and a political climate that prioritizes economic growth over environmental protection.
Mississippi River Issues
The Mississippi River, a vital artery, exemplifies the confluence of industrial pollution and environmental injustice:
"Cancer Alley" in Louisiana: The 85-mile stretch of the Mississippi River between New Orleans and Baton Rouge is notoriously known as "Cancer Alley" due to the high concentration of over 150 chemical plants and oil refineries. The communities along this corridor are predominantly African American and experience staggering levels of cancer and other health issues directly linked to industrial pollution.
Jackson, Mississippi Water Crisis: While not solely a Mississippi River issue, the repeated water crises in Jackson, Mississippi, a city with an over 80% Black population, highlight the severe infrastructure failures and discriminatory practices that lead to unsafe drinking water. The city has faced decades of a failing water system, boil-water advisories, and lack of access to clean water due to aging infrastructure, underfunding, and political disputes between predominantly white republican state officials and mostly Black democratic city officials.
Agricultural Runoff: Upstream agricultural practices contribute significant nutrient and chemical runoff to the Mississippi River, leading to issues like the "dead zone" in the Gulf of Mexico, which impacts fishing communities.
Where is Freshwater Sourced Today?
Less than 3% of the water found on Earth is fresh water, and the remaining 97% is salt water, such as what is found in the ocean. Most of the world’s fresh water is not easily accessible to humans. ~69% of Earth’s fresh water is locked away in the form of ice in glaciers and polar ice caps, and another 30% of Earth’s fresh water is under the surface in the form of groundwater. That leaves only about 1% of Earth’s fresh water as readily available for human use.
At the continental level, America has the largest share of the world’s total freshwater resources with 45 percent, followed by Asia with 28 percent, Europe with 15.5 percent and Africa with 9 percent. The Great Lakes alone represent ~20% of the world’s freshwater resources.
Water Suppliers in the U.S.
The Impact of Agriculture
Agriculture accounts for approximately 70% of all freshwater withdrawals worldwide. In low-income countries, this percentage can be even higher, reaching 90% of all water withdrawals.
While the global average is 70%, in the U.S., agriculture (primarily irrigation) accounts for about 42% of the nation's total freshwater withdrawals. This is a significant portion, though lower than the global average due to higher industrial and domestic water use in high-income countries. We’ll go deeper in a following post on the agriculture blueprint.
Next Gen Water: The #1 Priority Startup For Black America
Headquartered in Chicago, IL, the highest priority company for Black America to invest in is a next generation water technology company. The Blueprint is below. Shout out to the shadow warriors that provided feedback.
Phase 1: R&D, Pilot, and Strategic Foundations (Years 1-3)
Capital Needs (Estimated: $2.5B)
Seed Capital & Series A/B Funding: ~$50M - $200M (for initial R&D center, talent acquisition, legal, IP protection).
Acquisition of Aqua Illinois: ~$2B for the acquisition & banker fees. Assumes a $578M rate base and 2.5x EV/Rate Base multiple (aligns with Essential Utilities, the parent company). Public perception around Aqua Illinois is not great and new ownership is timely.
Acquisition of Koch Separation Solutions (now Kovalus Separation Solutions): Was recently acquired by Sun Capital Partners in October 2023 for $135 million USD. The end of Sun Capital’s hold period will be in ~2027/2028 and they’ll be looking to sell around then. Perfect timing given the need for advanced membranes to compliment the sourcing of raw materials from Africa.
Phase 1 Investors
There are over 20 black billionaires worldwide with close to ~$100B in combined net worth. A portion of them also have deep technology, finance, energy and industrial expertise. In particular calling out Aliko Dangote, David Stewart, Robert Smith, Alexander Karp and Adebayo Ogunlesi. There’s a number of super smart black investment bankers that cover the industrial/energy/tech world that can assist with everything. The initial $50-200M of early stage capital would be ~0.2% of the combined net worth of all black billionaires worldwide.
Phase 2: Water System M&A Roll-Up (Years 4-10)
Copy the American Water Works playbook to the best extent possible. All funded via balance sheet cash & debt. The Phase 1 company profile should be generating ~40-60% EBITDA margins by this time if tracking to its public comp peers. Conservatively you’re looking at ~$75M of annual free cash flow in year 4, growing at a steady pace to ~$150M in 2035.
Phase 3: Scaling Up Desalination Tech & Diversification (Years 10+)
Capital Needs (Estimated: $5B)
Full-Scale Production Facilities: Expanding manufacturing for membranes, components, and potentially full desalination units.
Large-Scale Desalination Plant: Building a flagship plant in a water-stressed region.
Initial Distribution Network & Fleet: Investment in specialized vehicles for bulk water transport, setting up regional distribution hubs.
Packaging Production Facilities: Investing in machinery and supply chain for sustainable packaging.
Secondary Capital: Some of the original equity holders will likely want to exit their investments and liquidate capital.
Phase 3 Investors
Given we’re building this to serve the community, not just make money, we should look at the 10-20 year horizon. The above group of billionaires can use their respective companies/investment funds to form a consortium to fund the remaining capital. It’s easily covered. GIP was recently acquired by Blackrock, but Adebayo still remains involved. GIP is known as being the top infrastructure fund in the world. GIP alone has over $100B in AUM. The investment will be de risked given the underlying cash flowing business and the manufacturing advancements in Africa that will take place from 2025-2035.
Phase 3 Materials Needed:
Construction: High-strength concrete, steel (bolted, welded), rebar, specialized coatings for corrosion resistance, piping (large diameter HDPE, ductile iron, fiberglass), electrical infrastructure, pumping stations.
Next-Gen Desalination: Large quantities of proprietary membrane materials, energy recovery devices, high-efficiency pumps, advanced sensors and AI-driven control systems.
Packaging Materials (Sustainable):
Bioplastics: PLA (polylactic acid) from corn starch, sugarcane-derived plastics, PHA (polyhydroxyalkanoates). Requires secure supply from large chemical companies or even in-house biopolymer production.
Recycled Content: RPET (recycled PET) plastic, recycled aluminum cans, recycled glass bottles. Requires strong partnerships with recycling facilities and material recovery operations.
Paper-based Solutions: Innovative cartons with plant-based linings, molded fiber packaging. Requires partnerships with sustainable forestry operations and pulp & paper manufacturers.
Reusable/Refillable Systems: Development of durable, returnable containers for bulk supply to businesses or water refill stations.
Water Storage Materials:
Advanced Bolted Steel Tanks: Glass-fused-to-steel, epoxy-coated steel.
Modular Stainless Steel Tanks: For hygienic and scalable solutions.
Pre-stressed Concrete Tanks: For very large, durable storage.
Geomembranes: For lined reservoirs (HDPE, LLDPE).
Innovative Materials: Research into self-healing concrete, advanced polymers with extreme durability and low permeability, smart materials integrated with sensors for real-time monitoring.
Transportation Services Required (more on this in a future post)
Fleet: Proprietary fleet of tankers for bulk water (food-grade stainless steel tanks), trucks for packaged water distribution.
Logistics Software: Advanced routing, tracking, and inventory management systems.
Partnerships: Strategic alliances with third-party logistics (3PL) providers for broader reach, especially for long-haul and international shipments. Rail and barge transport should also be explored for large volumes.
Concluding Thoughts
Is the above bold? Of course. But bold is needed. Think big. Don’t be scared. It can be done profitably. Seriously.